Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
