Daily Murders in Mexico Fall Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Statistics

The mean figure of per-day killings each month in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by fresh administrative figures. Nevertheless, public safety specialists have cautioned that murder figures could fail to point to improved national safety.

Marked Reduction in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in the month of November compared with almost 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in the previous September. This information was provided by the director of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that have been recorded during these months is extremely notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that the previous month the smallest number of murders were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Intense cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to confront the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in recent years. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure over four times greater than the US. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 last year. The President has linked her public safety approach for an seemingly sharper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the President stated: “There is a strategy, there is tracking of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The approach is effective. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Increased collaboration between government agencies.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

However, security researchers cautioned that relying on homicide numbers to paint a picture of pacification was flawed. This is particularly true given the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“This would be positive information if this were a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide data and say: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer useful for gauging the situation of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the capacity or the inclination to correctly identify and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that using monthly averages of everyday killings was also concerning because it may mask days when there were especially elevated levels of killings.

“Employing the per-day average makes surges of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can cite the success of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration

However notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains beset by severe bloodshed, with a number of states in the midst of cartel-fueled conflict. Recently there was a prominent assassination of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth protested in the capital and across the country to express their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to create a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” the analyst remarked.